Marvin Gaye was right. It's time to Save the Children.

The next UN climate conference, COP28, will be held in United Arab Emirates (UAE), a global leader in oil and gas with a poor human rights record, in early December 2023. The designated president is Sultan Al Jaber, Managing Director and Group CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.

The main stakeholders are two billion children in the Global South, and all future generations. Anthropogenic (human-made) global warming (AGW) is reducing their life expectancy. Many will die prematurely, killed indirectly by fossil fuel CEOs for massive profits.

Sign this petition to demand that COP28 recognize and defend the right to life of the world's children. The best solution is global prohibition of all fossil fuel exploration and extraction. All counterarguments and attempts to delay have been exposed as false or misleading.

We must also

• appoint a new COP28 president without an obvious conflict of interest,
• stop current expansion of UAE oil and gas (e.g., Upper Zakum) and instead reduce at a rate consistent with 1.5C, starting now, and
• inspire other countries to do likewise (e.g., High Ambition Coalition).

If COP28 fails to solve these problems, it should be boycotted.

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The following text is not part of the petition. Feedback and suggestions are welcome.

Anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is real 

By burning fossil fuels a million times faster than nature created them, humans have raised atmospheric CO2 concentration by 50% (from 280 to 420 ppm) and global mean surface temperature by 1.2°C. While extra CO2 may initially be good for plants, AGW is destroying their habitats and causing human deaths and species extinctions. 

• Climate has always changed, but humans could not have survived most earlier changes.
• Current warming (>1°C/century) is the fastest since the dinosaurs disappeared 66m years ago.
• CO2 levels were last consistently above 400 ppm 4m years ago, when mean temperature was 3°C higher and sea levels metres higher than today.
• Global mean surface temperature now exceeds the Holocene maximum 8000 years ago and it's the hottest for 120,000 years.
• CO2 emissions are affecting global climate more and faster than changes in earth's orbit (every 20,000 to 100,000 years) or solar radiation (Little Ice Age, 300 years ago).
• AGW will last 100s or 1000s of years and is practically irreversible, unlike periodic effects of volcanoes (1-2 years) and El Niño (<1 year every 2 to 7 years).
• If all fossil fuel burning stopped, global temperature would rise another 1°C: 0.4°C from stopping air pollution (aerosols reflect sunlight but cause 7m yearly deaths from cardiovascular diseases and cancer) and 0.6°C as the system approaches equilibrium.
• Climate feedbacks make warming accelerate toward irreversible tipping points.

Estimating future death rates

Our first priority is to minimize human death and suffering. Whereas non-human species and natural environments are enormously and intrinsically valuable, and human survival depends on ecosystem services​, conscious human lives are the most valuable things we anthropocentric humans know. They are intrinsically valuable, and the foundation of our values.

My 2019 article on AGW and human rights (see also MDPI 2023) got more views and downloads than 95% of all Frontiers articles. I argued that 2°C of warming will cause roughly a billion (bn) deaths during the coming century. We will reach 2°C by burning a trillion (tn) tonnes of fossil carbon, probably by 2050. Therefore, burning roughly 1000 tonnes of carbon (or emitting 3700 tonnes of CO2) causes one future death (1000-tonne rule).

The deaths will be caused by extreme temperatures (lethal with high humidity), extreme storms, drought, flood, famine​, contaminated water, disease migration, new pandemics, fires, landslides​, earthquakes,​ rising seas​, migration, and conflict. An independent analysis of mortality due only to direct extreme heat and humidity found that burning 1200 tonnes of carbon (creating 4,434 tonnes of CO2) causes a future death.

Burning 1tn tonnes of carbon could cause 1bn deaths in Africa alone, and from starvation alone, if Africa’s population (currently 1.4 bn) reaches 4bn by 2100 and food production is already approaching natural limits. The death toll will be due to population growth, AGW, soil degradation, and biodiversity loss. Already today, 250m people are in danger of starvation.

In 2012, AGW killed 400,000 people per year. Today, the rate must be approaching 1m/yr (top-down, order-of-magnitude estimate) (much less than the 7m/yr who die yearly from breathing polluted air). Burning 1tn tonnes of carbon could cause 10m deaths/yr in the 22nd century—doubling the current death rate from poverty.

The predictions are very uncertain. Climate scientists may agree about temperature trajectories in simpler, linear models, but disagree about feedbacks and interacting tipping points in complex models. In the best case, there will be smaller feedbacks and tipping points, and successful adaptation. A worst case involves more powerful tipping mechanisms and poor adaptation. The precautionary principle implies we should aim for the best case but prepare for the worst; we are currently doing the opposite.

In a best-case estimate, burning 1tn tonnes of fossil carbon will cause 300m premature deaths, or 3m per year for 100 years—the current rate at which children are dying of hunger. That assumes successful adaptation and includes all deaths from heatwaves, starvation, disease, and conflict caused by AGW. Extreme temperatures—mainly cold not due to AGW—currently cause 5m deaths per year; this rate is now declining, but will later rise again.

A worst-case estimate involves cascading​ tipping​ points and non-linear​ interactions among ecosystem stressors. The total long-term death toll from burning 1tn tonnes carbon might be 3bn (30m/yr x 100 years), or 1/3 of future global population. AGW of "only" 1.5°C could trigger multiple tipping points (e.g. Amazon, ​Antarctic). We expect to pass 1.5°C temporarily in 2027 (perhaps 2023) and permanently in the 2030s—sooner with reduction in air pollution that reflects sunlight.

We are currently headed for 3°C of warming in 2100. Every increase of 0.1°C will likely bring worse fires, floods, famines, droughts, heatwaves, and storms. With rising seas and more migration, disease, and conflict, human populations will be decimated. Parts of Asia (China, India, Middle East) and Africa will become uninhabitable, creating 1bn climate refugees—10x more than today. Society and civilization will collapse.

If 2°C of warming causes 1bn deaths over a century, every additional degree could kill at least 1bn more. At the 4 Degrees and Beyond International Climate Conference (Oxford, 2009) some participants suggested that <1bn people would survive 4°C in the longer term. More likely, 6bn would survive with poor quality of life and 3bn would die. A recent study of mass mortality in a runaway AGW scenario of 8-12°C predicted 3.9 bn starvation deaths in Africa, 1.4 bn in Asia, 500m in the Americas, 300m in Europe and 70m in Oceania, but did not consider other causes of death from AGW such as direct heat. Lacking the infrastructure needed for Star-Trek-like technology, humanity would die out at around 10°C; the four horsemen of the climate endgame will be famine, extreme weather, conflict, and vector-borne diseases.

Responding rationally

These are not doomsday myths—they are scientific predictions. The intention is not to scare, but to inform, so that the staggering ethical, legal, and economic implications can be constructively addressed. Between the two extreme paths of denial and despair lies a rational, pragmatic middle path that will allow us to avoid the worst consequences in honest, respectful global collaboration.

We already have the foundations for a solution. In ethics, there is universal agreement that human lives are more important than money. In law, it is a universally a serious crime to recklessly cause human deaths. Leaders of fossil-fuel industries and states who are making $1tn/yr (or more) and risking 1bn human lives are knowingly destroying the future of their own children and grandchildren.

We humans tend to have more empathy for a suffering individual than for the suffering of a billion. This psychological effect is called psychic numbing or collapse of compassion. Human survival now depends on our ability to be both rational and emotional, focusing on the biggest problems first. 

Our demands for COP28 (UAE 2023):

The annual UN climate conference (Conference of the Parties COP to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC) aims to “stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system.” But global emissions have risen steadily since the series began in 1995. They have meanwhile stabilized but must now plummet to limit AGW to 2°C.

At COP27 (Egypt 2022), UN Secretary General António Guterres warned “We’re on a highway to climate hell with our foot still on the accelerator.” The final document included the 1.5°C goal but no plan to achieve it. The new climate compensation (loss and damage) fund cannot undo the death and destruction unleashed at 1.5°C  and beyond.

The time for greenwashing and naive optimism is over. The world’s countries must put aside their differences and act. Climate commitments must be credible. We need stubborn​ realism, clarifying honestly and repeatedly what must be urgently done:

Protect life. Children’s rights are paramount. We must recognize and defend the right to life of all children—especially in the more vulnerable Global South. AGW is ageist​, racist​, sexist, and povertyist: the risk and injustice are greater for children, People of Color, women, and poorer people, but the problem is mainly caused by rich white men. The right to life must be universally recognized. Since human health depends critically on intrinsically valuable natural environments, we must also protect biodiversity: 1m species currently face extinction.

Phase out all fossil fuels. Our primary goal is mitigation: preventing AGW by leaving fossil fuels in the ground. We must close down 425 carbon bombs: existing and proposed fossil fuel projects generating >1 Gt CO2 each (killing over 300,000 future people each, according to the 1000-tonne rule). All new fossil-fuel projects, all exploration for new deposits, and all expansion of existing projects (including for example new airports or airport expansion) must be stopped. Currently, global emissions are still rising and 96% of the oil and gas industry is still expanding. That is undermining all UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which in turn is driving migration by refugees. Since the main causes of forced migration — poverty, hunger, conflict, disasters, persecution, corruption — are in part driven by climate change, the most effective long-term response to the global refugee crisis may be simply to stop emitting CO2.

First mitigation, then adaptation. If the bathtub is overflowing, first turn off the tap, then mop the floor. We can’t afford to favor adaptation over mitigation!

Electrify and reduce. Make all electricity supplies 100% sustainable (wind, solar, hydro, tidal, geothermal) while  minimizing other environmental consequences. Electrify almost everything including transport. Promote public transport: it is more energy-efficient and less environmentally damaging (extractivist) than private cars. A global agreement on speed limits of 100 km/h would reduce emissions and  accidents. Improve energy efficiency; waste less. Promote decentralized energy communities and energy citizenship to mitigate both climate change and air pollution. Electric heating is good if electricity is sustainable, otherwise promote district heating and heat pumps with government subsidies. For cooling, promote solar air conditioning.

Fly less. Long-haul commercial flying cannot become sustainable in coming decades. Global limits in natural resources mean sustainable aviation fuel will exacerbate hunger and deforestation. Carbon offsets are problematic. We must instead fly less: tax and/or ration​ flying, and ban or limit advertising​, private jets, and space tourism (also cruise ships).

No excuses! Development of carbon capture and storage​, carbon dioxide removal, or geoengineering does not justify fossil fuel use. All such approaches are problematic and will need decades to scale up. Meanwhile, all fossil fuel exploration and extraction must be stopped. Renewables are a better investment than carbon capture or CO2 removal.

Reform agriculture. Some 20% of global greenhouse-gas emissions are from agriculture (mainly meat & dairy), which also impacts biodiversity loss. We must promote counterstrategies  (e.g., alternative foods, rewilding, meat taxes). 

Preserve native forests. Like wetlands (peatlands), they are are invaluable as carbon sinks and biodiversity hotspots (more). Disturbed, they can flip from sink to source of CO2 and methane.

Regulate plastic, concrete, steel. Plastic contribues to both AGW and biodiversity loss; production must be limited by international agreement. Production of concrete and steel must be rapidly decarbonized.

Regulate other greenhouse gases: methane (CH4), nitrous oxide​, fluorinated gases.

Decarbonize capitalism. Governments increasingly support fossil fuels: spending on subsidies in 2022 was $7tn. We must instead end all fossil fuel subsidies and tax carbon (both domestically and internationally, with carbon border adjustment) including windfall profits and aviation kerosene. Financial institutions must invest in sustainables not fossil fuels. Advertising that encourages fossil-fuel use (e.g. red meat, cars, flying, cruise ships, space tourism) should be banned. We must promote sustainable circular economies and an end to economic growth in richer countries.

Address inequality. The richest 1% emit more CO2 than the poorest 50%. Growing inequality is undermining democracy and inhibiting climate action. Climate justice can be achieved in part by globally harmonized wealth taxes (or at least a global minimum corporate tax). Together with carbon taxes and transaction taxes, wealth taxes (including inheritance taxes) can finance renewable energy, climate compensation, and poverty alleviation, to reduce the high future costs of climate adaptation and prevent working and middle classes from paying for damage caused by the rich.

Compensate the Global South. Global South countries are being forced to invest in fossil fuels to service their debts. Yet the global North caused the climate crisis. Richer countries must now pay poorer countries to leave fossil fuels in the ground. Reparations must be paid by fossil fuel corporations and richer countries to compensate for centuries of colonization, exploitation, and slavery.

Promote legal solutions. We must internationally ban all fossil fuel exploration and all new fossil fuel projects. National constitutions and the UN should be required to care for young people and future generations. We must investigate and punish ecocide, which is currently recognized as a crime by only ten countries. The biggest fossil fuel producers must be forced to reduce their turnover by any reasonable means including trial for crimes against humanity. To protect the innocent, the guilty must be punished.

Promote democracy. At all levels (local, national, global) energy, like water, should be controlled democratically. The World Trade Organization can enforce trade agreements and may play an important role in climate protection—we now need a World Climate Organization or a World Climate Crisis Organization that can enforce global climate agreements. Globally binding climate agreements can be achieved by global democratic structures such as the planned UN Parliamentary Assembly. We must also promote climate citizen’s assemblies in participating countries, inviting them to present and compare results at COP. Cases of state capture, in which national democracies are paralyzed by vested interests, must be identified and deconstructed. Every COP should be preceded and guided by a newly constituted global citizen’s assembly.

Promote low birth rates by promoting equal rights for women (financial, educational, political) and universal pension schemes. Expose and oppose pronatalism.

To approach at least some of these goals, the conference must:

Show leadership. We need independent, intrinsically motivated climate leaders who will not rest until essential goals are met. UAE cannot lead COP28 while at the same time massively expanding its own oil and gas production (more). UAE is currently investing three times more in fossil fuels than sustainables—contrary to the global trend. UAE must roughly halve both consumption and export of fossil fuels by 2030 and encourage other countries to do likewise—or give the COP28 presidency to a more plausible candidate.

Exclude lobbyists. Anyone whose financial interests contradict the goals of COP must be excluded. Hundreds of fossil fuel lobbyists were granted access to COP27, encouraging greenwashing, lying and cheating. The conference president must be independent and unbiased. The current president, Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, has a conflict of interest and must be replaced.

Fly public. Many private jets flew to COP27, burning much more fuel per passenger than a commercial flight. COP participants can and should fly public. In general, private jets should be heavily taxed or banned.

Innovate. The conference must creatively explore new legal, political, and economic pathways to massive and immediate global reductions in fossil fuel extraction.

Clarify procedures. Establish clear criteria for consensus at COP28, to enable and facilitate far-reaching decisions.

Prioritize. To save 1bn lives, we urgently need a strong global agreement to leave all remaining fossil fuels in the ground forever, and a fair transition to sustainable energy that leaves no worker behind. Avoid sophisticated distractions—everything else is secondary.

Cooperate. Respond constructively to these and similar demands. Tell the whole truth and avoid misleading arguments. 

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Please sign and share this petition to defend the right to life of 2bn children. Think of this: saving 1bn lives with a probability of only 0.1% is comparable with actually saving 1m lives.

Further information: IPCC - Nature - Lancet - UNEP Emissions Gap Report- UN News - Whyy - CTV - Arab News - Hindustan Times - Guardian - New York Times - Euractiv - Job One For Humanity - Climate Home News

Image by bess.hamiti@gmail.com from Pixabay